Demographers find that
a hypothetical 1 million US deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic would mean a drop in life expectancy for 2020 by 2.9 years, equivalent of U.S. mortality levels in 1995.

The scenario of 1 million COVID-19 deaths is similar in scale to that of the decades-long HIV/AIDS and opioid-overdose epidemics but considerably smaller than that of the Spanish flu of 1918.


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